In a tale of two Melbournes, it’s the worst of times for the Liberals

Victorian election 2022

It has been a tale of two Melbournes.

As predicted, Labor faced some big swings, particularly in those parts of the city that had felt the burden of the pandemic and Melbourne’s long lockdowns most acutely.

Scenes of dejection at Liberal Party headquarters at Doncaster Bowls Club as a Labor win is called.Credit:Jason South

But not where it ultimately mattered, leaving the Coalition with no pathway to victory in early counting, and facing the disastrous prospect of a net loss of seats.

As ABC election analyst Antony Green pointed out, the biggest swings against Labor were to the west of the city, where the ALP’s primary vote slumped by more than 9 per cent. This is traditionally Labor heartland, where the party has enormous buffers. In other words, it made almost no difference to the final seat count.

In Point Cook, for example, Labor’s primary vote was down by a whopping 11.5 per cent by about 8.30pm. It was a similar story in Sunbury, where Labor’s primary vote was down 15.6 per cent, and in Tarneit, where Labor’s primary was down 11.1 per cent.

On the other hand, the Liberal Party failed to make inroads to the east of the city.

In fact, in early counting, Labor was on track to win the outer eastern seats of Hastings and Bayswater, and the seat of Glen Waverley.

Nor had the Liberal Party made a dent in the so-called Frankston line seats, stretching around Port Philip Bay to the south-east that it snatched from Labor in 2010, only to relinquish them again four years later.

In fact, the only obvious gain for the Liberal party is the Mornington Peninsula seat of Nepean (which the party was always expected to win). This raises the prospect that the election could result in a net loss of the seat for the Liberal Party.

Coming from what many in the Liberal Party believed was a low-water mark after the “Danslide” result of 2018, it represents a disastrous result for the Liberal Party that will raise deep existential questions for the Party.

• Go here for the latest election results, headlines, updates and analysis

As Shadow Treasurer David Davis put it, such as result would be “very bad indeed”, coming after the 2018 election result, which left the Coalition with a dismal 27 seats in the lower house, to Labor’s 55 seats.

For the Greens, the election result was a resounding success, with the party on track to win the seats of Richmond and Northcote (and possibly the seat of the Brunswick, which would take their seat count in the lower house to five.

The result will raise profound questions for the Coalition. First, the party clearly cannot sustain further incursions from the religious right, which has proven to be politically poisonous for the party.

Second, if it is to survive, particularly after the emphatic thumping in Victoria experienced by the party in the federal election, it will need to do more to connect with younger voters who want credible action in areas such as climate change.

Finally, the party relinquished any attempt to appear financially credible, with a bungled announcement of its policy costings on Thursday.

The Morning Edition newsletter is our guide to the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up here.

Most Viewed in Politics

From our partners

Source: Read Full Article