What the SAG Nominations Mean for the Oscars as Chadwick Boseman Makes History

On the heels of the nominations for the Golden Globes and the release of the BAFTA longlist, the Screen Actors Guild Awards have weighed in on the best films and performances of the season. Critics awards be damned, SAG will do what they want to do.

Overall, the nominations provided not as many jaw-droppers as we’ve seen in normal years. Chadwick Boseman made history by scoring four nominations on the film side in one year — two individual noms for his performances in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” and “Da 5 Bloods,” and the others as part of the ensembles.

Heavily male casts dominated the ensemble categories. A24’s “Minari” has the most women represented in its cast with Yeri Han, Noel Kate Cho and supporting actress nominee Yung-Jun Youn.  Amazon Studios’ “One Night in Miami” from Regina King, the only female-directed film to make the lineup, has two women among its cast, Joaquina Kalukango and Nicolette Robinson. Viola Davis, who was nominated for best actress, was the only woman of her ensemble for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” Co-star Taylour Paige was not nominated among the cast.

The shocks seemed limited compared to other years. Netflix dominated with 13 nominations in film, and as it stands, the streamer could, if played right, win all the major film categories with “The Trial of the Chicago 7” in ensemble and supporting actor, Boseman and Davis in lead actor and actress and Glenn Close in supporting.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A CAST ENSEMBLE

• “Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix)
• “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
• “Minari” (A24)
• “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)
• “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)

PREDICTION TALLY: 3/5

This didn’t offer any jaw-droppers. Even with “Nomadland” missing, which was a bit of a longshot in this space, this offers up an opportunity for some movies to change the narrative for best picture. “The Trial of the Chicago 7” looks to be the frontrunner, but “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” and “Minari” scored the most acting nominations of the group. With the latter, one year following “Parasite” and the debacle regarding its “foreign’ status at the HFPA, people could fall in line and rally behind it.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

• Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
• Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
• Anthony Hopkins, “The Father” (Sony Pictures)
• Gary Oldman, “Mank” (Netflix)
• Steven Yeun, “Minari” (A24)

PREDICTION TALLY: 4/5

Delroy Lindo misses again for his work in “Da 5 Bloods,” which will be hard to bounce back from. Even with making the BAFTA longlist, his nomination from overseas seems less likely, considering how they typically treat Black actors (for example, Denzel Washington still has never been nominated by BAFTA despite his two Oscars). Steven Yeun needed this mention for “Minari,” and it will likely carry him into the Oscar voting period. Riz Ahmed, Chadwick Boseman and Anthony Hopkins seem locked and loaded for the Academy. When it comes to Gary Oldman, he resembles Christian Bale (“Ford v Ferrari”) or Leonardo DiCaprio (“J. Edgar”), respected actors that are a “default” choice for the nominating committee. If he does end up being snubbed, it doesn’t look like Lindo would be the one to come up for the slot. We could be in store for a nomination from someone who hasn’t been cited yet — perhaps Tom Hanks (“News of the World”), Lakeith Stanfield (‘”Judas and the Black Messiah”) or John David Washington (“Malcolm & Marie”).

Bits of history: Boseman is the first double posthumous nominee, but he’s the second one for the lead category at SAG, following Massimo Troisi for 1994’s “Il Postino.” Hopkins, 83, is the oldest nominee ever, surpassing Robert Duvall for 2011’s “Get Low.” This is also the first time in SAG history where people of color outnumbered white actors in the category.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

• Amy Adams, “Hillbilly Elegy” (Netflix)
• Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
• Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman” (Netflix)
• Frances McDormand, “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
• Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features)

PREDICTION TALLY: 3/5

The competitive nature of best actress is stressed by how the category has emerged this season so far. Viola Davis, Vanessa Kirby, Frances McDormand and Carey Mulligan seem ready for the AMPAS ballots, with this fifth spot seemingly up for grabs. Amy Adams’ nomination for “Hillbilly Elegy” smells like Emily Blunt’s nom for “The Girl on the Train,” and not sure it’s going to translate in the end. Andra Day (“The United States vs. Billie Holiday”), Sophia Loren (“The Life Ahead”) and Zendaya (“Malcolm & Marie”) are still in the mix, and the next 30 days will be big. Day is at a disadvantage after missing the BAFTA longlist, so Loren could be up for grabs, especially with Diane Warren’s song making noise.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
• Chadwick Boseman, “Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix)
• Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros)
• Jared Leto, “The Little Things” (Warner Bros)
• Leslie Odom Jr, “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)

PREDICTION TALLY: 3/5

Chadwick Boseman’s work in “Da 5 Bloods” is recognized, and it throws him back in the race. The omission of the critical leader Paul Raci is disheartening, and his road is narrowing by the announcement. Critics Choice and BAFTA will be critical for his campaign. Jared Leto’s trajectory for “The Little Things” is also still working the rounds. Is he the Daniel Bruhl (“Rush”) or Michael Shannon (“99 Homes”) of the lineup, where he scores Globes and SAG but misses Oscar? For Leto, who won the Oscar for “Dallas Buyers Club,” the Oscars like to reaffirm their previous choices. This now looks to be a three-horse race between Cohen, Kaluuya and Odom. Two of them are in ensemble nominees, and Kaluuya continues to build steam.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (Amazon Studios)
• Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy” (Netflix)
• Olivia Colman, “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari” (A24)
• Helena Zengel, “News of the World” (Universal Pictures)

PREDICTION TALLY: 3/5

Maria Bakalova and Yuh-Jung Youn, the top two critical leaders, make the cut and should sail through to the Oscars for attention. Glenn Close’s nomination for “Hillbilly Elegy” is a testament to the campaign strategy of Netflix. With a Globe nomination where neither of the precursor leaders is nominated alongside her. Now with Amanda Seyfried being ousted by SAG for “Mank,” she may have cleared a pathway for the “overdue narrative” to take off. Interesting note, Close has yet to win a regional or major critics prize. If that were to continue, and she mustered to win the Oscar, she would be the first person since Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side” to do so. Bullock didn’t win any critics prizes until the televised award shows, in which she swept. Her film was also surprisingly nominated for best picture. Does that mean “Hillbilly Elegy’ could be a dark horse, especially with the Amy Adams nomination?

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE

• “Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix)
• “Mulan” (Walt Disney Pictures)
• “News of the World” (Universal Pictures)
• “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
• “Wonder Woman 1984” (Warner Bros)

PREDICTION TALLY: 3/5

No “Tenet” is shocking. I guess scaling buildings is less impressive than walking up and down courtroom stairs and slamming a gavel. The nomination for “The Trial of the Chicago 7” here proves its strength in all seriousness.

Oscar predictions will be updated on Friday, Feb. 5.

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